Who is another fofoa

This is a point which Bron disagreed with. And the origins of that discussion can be found here. A simple google search using "fofoa lbma survey" should lead any interested reader to all additional discussion on that issue.

I don't think it shows that or that one can deduce that from it, as there are a lot of questions around the methodology of the survey which could result in the "imbalance". OK, I think that I am at the right spot. I do want to throw this out at Bron in regards to his comment, "In I remember FOFOA getting excited about the shortages and whatnot, feeling it may be "it".

I disagreed as I wasn't seeing any stress it the wholesale markets. I know that you are referencing the gold wholesale market specifically, and I do think that it is entirely possible that the Perth mint may not see any problems until one plops right in front of them, but did it not come across in Australia that the current IMS was maybe minutes away from collapse during Sept-Oct ?

Maybe, as some have suggested, it was just your run of the mill fear mongering which I don't subscribe to. But, I would like to present just a quick sampling of some links that support the opinion fact? Transcript of Rep. We were having an electronic run on the banks. They decided to close down the operation, to close down the money accounts.

We talked at that time about what would have happened. It would have been the end of our economic and our political system as we know it. This resulted in demands from investors to return their funds as the financial crisis mounted. The Reserve had multiple other funds frozen because of this failure. It has liquidated a few funds, and post periodic updates about plans to liquidate other funds on their website. Kanjorski: "Please describe the meltdown. I'm hoping that you may remember whether questions of law and order were asked.

Whether questions of the capacity to feed the American people, and for what period of time, were asked? I'm not going to say what I remember the answers to be.

He said look at the depression, there's your answer. The fact that they were able to pull back from the brink doesn't mean we weren't at the brink. It sure did seem like it at the time. Bron, Thanks for the pointer, but that doesn't really answer the question in my opinion.

If there has been further conversation on this matter, I would greatly like to read it. Hence my questions to Warren. Bron, I am new here; and yet pls allow me some remarks. You are stating that Freegolders »believe in freegold, that is the model, which defines 1 … 2 … 3 …« From where do you know? From writings? Well, we could know a bit by analyzing thoroughly the semantics, the dates, the circumstances by and in which someone is posting and not posting. Afterwards passing this analysis through some psychological raster.

But not before. But what we really do know is: Any rational understanding of reality is in needs of a model which we can lay over reality, to compare: Does the model fit? So if there is somebody out there using a model as FOFOA does this is no proof for anything else then: Probably he tries to understand.

And also the fact that if someone is holding to one model over a longer period of time is no proof that he is a "believer".

The scientific way of doing things is to test a model until it is disproved. Therefore we can also say: The longer someone is holding to a certain model as long it is not disproved the more earnest he seems to be in trying to understand.

What is the outcome of knowledge of those who are flipping from one theory to the next, from one model to the next? Sincerely ea. BeerHoliday, There was a central banker from Mauritius mentioned gold returning as a floating reserve, I don't have his name or link to hand, but it was or I think. Other CBs can't be seen to rock the boat, we all know the US is trigger happy these days.

Read his posts from , there is such a load of nonsense and imminent doom prediction. And he didn't grasp the basics of the Euro set up, despite reading Another and Foa several times. Plus, all debate is thoroughly vanquished at hs blog, with his tacit approval. Very strange, very dubious.

Look around, where is the loss if confidence in the system? It is still there, QE is fololing people, the world is relatively normal. Eventually, when confidence goes in a couple of big sovereign currencies, probably Japan and UK, things will look a bit different.

Even then, what will cause the mighty dollar to collapse? It'll be the realisation that the world is deflating towards depression despite QE, that there is no hope. Only then will the final day of reckoning happen. In my opinion of course. Martin Armstrong gets a lot wrong, especially re the US not hyper inflating, but he has more right on timescales and inter connectedness than freegolders, you are too hung up on the minutiae of GLD and related issues, you have slipped down from the top of the mountain view, or perhaps not quite reached it yet.

BH, 'The nominal value of that gold we controversially purchased from the IMF in November , has risen by some Rs million, perhaps the best investment the bank has ever made in its entire history; no wonder there is international talk about moving back to gold as a reference value, if no longer as actual backing, for paper currencies. SL, Wow! An unexpected compliment. And guilty as charged. We watch this new gold market together, yes? Milamber, You're welcome, very polite of you, but do you have anything to add to the FG discussion, especially pertaining to freegolder's very frequent naivete in expecting freegold way before it's due in this now quite mature gold market?

Otherwise, I'll assume you just accept my points as accurate and indefensible. Other than this Robert continued to say Giants have not been accumulating gold for decades, centuries millennia?? Because if you wait until that phase transition begins, then you are already too late. The other side whoever it may be often tries to make the debate about timing.

It is not about timing and I don't do timing, but that doesn't mean the end is far away. If anything, it's overdue in the same way a big earthquake can be overdue… Here is FOA on timing, from a post in which he specifically predicted dollar "hyper price inflation": Timing? We, and I, as physical gold advocates, don't need timing for this position! Timing is for poor, paper traders. The fact that both Germany and Greece use the same fiat in day-to-day transactions is irrelevant to the fact that the savers start to prefer gold over debt.

As long as products flow from Germany to southern Europe, gold ought to flow in the opposite direction. Same old story. What puzzles me most is that it took the Germans over a year to even propose it. Perhaps the German backbenchers are of some use after all. He makes very strong points, euro is gonna fall without the eurobonds repairs the way Martin suggests. Paul: He makes very strong points, euro is gonna fall without the eurobonds repairs the way Martin suggests.

No doubts with me either. Eurobonds are go, just a case of "when? My issue is with his assertion the euro will fail , not that it would fall.

Gold will catch the falling euro, while the [current] dollar lacks any real connection with gold and will be left to fall on through the floor towards oblivion — until a connection of some form or another with gold is reinstated. But hey, what do I know either! I still don't think the eurobonds are go, not in a good way anyway, the politcians over here are just to stupid to understand.

The former kolonels and dictators in southern europe are knocking at the door. I and Martin for sure understand the concept of gold catching the currency, but as long as the single european states are allowed to write their own bonds, the intern mismatch will only get bigger.

DP the one world currency will be something like the former ecu. Mrt, the world has a recurring problem of insufficient liquidity for international reserves, but at the same time desires stable value of currencies. So, on the one hand everybody wants plenty of currency to go around to prevent stifling of global economic potential, but on the other hand everybody wants restraint in issuance of the reserve currencies.

We can stop using the currencies for reserves, avoiding the concerns over dilution - switch to gold as the reserve currency. However, this will create a liquidity problem since the available gold volume doesn't and can't expand to keep up with the economic potential of the world. So the only realistic and viable option left that the whole world could agree upon, is to expand the value of gold.

To raise its purchasing power in terms of all other goods and services [and currencies! If the managers of all the world's curencies wish to retain a currency of any value in such a gold-centric environment, they had better provide a credible link of some form or another, between their currency and gold. Paul: the one world currency will be something like the former ecu. Sounds like a fun little global dictatorshiup you've got planned there buddy!

Perhaps I should invest in some Jackboot manufacturers after all But I do have a question already though: if the currencies will float in the world currency, presumably be tradeable, what mechanism will take out all the unwanted arbitrage? A law made by the world government and enforced by the global police force, perhaps? Methinks market arbitrage will not be take-out-able if anything floats, and also that it should not be unwanted if we are to stay out from under the heel.

Perhaps the stupid pols of this world are right now getting a good, hard lesson in basic economics from all the right people. Maybe they don't need to be so smart to conceptualise what they can see now in front of their noses. Martin is much better in explaining In theory, I can agree it should be possible to create a truly stable unbacked currency.

In practise, I personally doubt it could stay above corruption since it is ultimately controlled only by [some] men. What I think doesn't really matter of course. But more important is that I don't think everybody in a position of power around the world will believe it is beyond corruption, that the men who control this synthetic currency will not be a form of global dictatorship, looking out for their own self-interests and available to buy at some price.

So I feel these cynics are more likely — at least for now — to go for gold instead. To trust the incorruptible hand of mother nature. Gold fulfilled this role from the time of Augustus to The absence of gold as an intrinsic part of our monetary system makes our century, the one that has just past, unique in several thousand years… I firmly believe gold will be a part of the international monetary system sometime in the twenty first century.

Since we're talking Armstrong at the moment, let's step back in time to November and remind ourselves what his gold projections graph on the last page of this report PDF looked like. You might notice that his "primary channel" was broken upside recently, and that there's a very strong possibility it is just being retested to confirm today. Roll up! Getyer cheap gold 'ere Paul, sure did. I see we didn't yet?? From bottom up and the top to down. I try to concentrate a little bit on the first one now after grasping the further.

Those views are converging IMO. DP yes will be interesting to see where this is going, luckily we didn't have the break out yet I am also watching his DJ-forecast for this week. He suggested we would see a sharp decline, since we closed below "a line in the sand" well, we didn't have decline for the week yet, but curiously steve jobs suddenly retires. I think not. In his latest article, Martin argues for a One World Currency.

He shows how gold has for centuries been the de facto one world currency. And he points out the problems of a fixed gold price in a gold standard, as well as the benefits of a floating gold price.

Everything he describes seems to dance nicely around the Freegold concept. And further explained in the comments What is valuable here are some of the thoughts he articulates in the first part.

This is why we will have Freegold. Whether it is brought to us by man, or whether man fails at what he tries. It makes no difference. A global currency And it already exists. No group of politicians can overpower this. It is too big. Like the tide. MA is nuts and we are not gonna have a one world currency, but MA does "dance" around freegold in getting a gold standard won't work, observing gold's historical role, and getting the importance of a floating gold price.

But no world currency But technical analysis means absolutely nothing right now. You can all safely skip the last 9 pages of the PDF. It deals with manipulated fiat currencies measured against other manipulated fiat currencies.

Look at the Y-axis of the charts. It is other paper currencies. How can you measure something against a changing standard? Martin's technical analysis means nothing. So what if the dollar hits even ? It means nothing. I did learn a lot from this height, very nice view, but I think I will climb a little bit further now. I am sorry, you appear to have reached the wrong branch of the executive, please try dialing EFSF I am packing my bag, EUR will be one of the local currencies at best, with freegold , no doubts there!

Happy Hiking! See you again on the trail DP frau Merkel mentioned something like that yes. Eurobonds will have to be there, one way or the other. Hi Victor, Thanks for the measured and thoughtful commentary as usual.

I have a question for you, did you see what RLP posted above? Here's some context too from Deflation or Hyperinflation? The BIS truly represents "the rest of the world" from a monetary perspective. It is the "trade union" of their Central Banks. All is not as it seems on the surface. The dollar system is a system of selling debt as a wealth reserve You certainly don't deprive the easy money camp of their precious fiat!

So of course the Euro politicians play the political game with two camps. Greece is the Word "In order to understand the greater systemic problem that is presenting today as a boiling pustule in Greece, we must first understand the flow of capital and the growth of debt. With debt growth as the deadly tumor in the cycle, it is easiest to visualize the flow of money as a circular feedback loop, where the debt cycle feeds back on itself in a sustained growth pattern.

Image: circular feedback loop of debt feeding on itself The denouement or final shakeout of this systemic crisis will include two separate events, no matter what decisions are made along the way. In this statement I have full confidence. For semantic simplicity I call these two events freegold and hyperinflation. But these terms seem to cause consternation and confusion in many readers, so you can think of them simply as the dramatic devaluation of paper gold and the catastrophic devaluation of the dollar.

Two inevitable devaluations. Two unavoidable outcomes. That it won't or can't happen because country A isn't ready for it, or country B doesn't want it. Or that "the elite" will never allow it. Blah blah blah Well, Freegold, or whatever you want to call it, is kind of like a runaway freight train coming right at us.

It is not stoppable and it is not controllable. It has a mind of its own and too much momentum to do anything but prepare for its arrival.

It is not for any elite or any country to decide when and if it happens. It is only for them and us to be as prepared as possible when it does. And because of this, my gut tells me it is likely that the Fed is supplying liquidity dollars in some way behind the scenes to ease the situation. How the ECB will respond to this "foreign bailout" is a question, but not a vital one from my perspective.

Of course the European socialists have huge problems, but you must understand that the entire global financial system is built upon the dollar. See: Goldman Sachs" cont. So playing the game as you say is just continuing its long term strategy for the euro. It never wanted to destroy the dollar. It always knew this would end but it didn't want to ever be seen as the culprit. And as I say, each effort to prolong the system kneecaps the supports holding it up on the other side. The ECB probably understands this better than anyone else in the world.

This is why I said that the ECB's response is not a big deal either way. They probably see better than anyone else that the system is near its natural end. For them it comes down to politics and appearances at this point. A cosmetic decision to either support a suicidal activity or to proactively and publicly administer euthanasia. Just a random snippet from FOA about the thoughts behind the creation of the euro In order to build a consensus for a Pan European currency, the architects had to have time, years of it.

The last thing they needed was a world-wide economic downturn brought on by a failing dollar system. Working between and , the software for such a system was only just beginning to really take shape. It was a slow, hard process because during this period and many years prior, the dollar was already experiencing convulsions. They needed at least another ten years, but without something to make the dollar more acceptable even five years was too long.

Working within a large group of nations required painstaking discussion of all ideas out in the open, so their agenda had to offer something for everyone. In addition, this new currency could not be seen as a competition for dollar use, otherwise the US would most certainly try to split the group. It's important to understand that most of the world wanted to at least see another currency that could share some of the dollar's function. It didn't have to replace it. To this end, most every country gave some philosophical and political support in its creation.

Stocks are going to get clobbered. This rally is rubbish and it won't survive much into September if that. And every week it makes quantitative volume adjustments, like net increases or decreases in both gold and foreign currency reserves. But it only makes qualitative or value adjustments on four of those 52 statements. This is when the ECB marks its reserves to what the market says they're worth.

The MTM party! Yet if we look at those reserves only quantitatively by volume, the opposite is true. Meanwhile the Eurosystem's gold reserves have fallen, again, only quantitatively, from million ounces to million ounces in volume. The reason is that governments and central banks can only print volume, not value. Think about this for a moment Now yes, of course, at that time no printers of paper currency told you their product was losing value.

But here's what I started to think about: Today, the printer of the euro, the ECB, tells all the owners that the money it prints has less value in gold… once every quarter! And not only that, but it encourages people to save in gold through system-wide mandates. Dang, now that's quite a 'something different' when you really stop to think about it! Gotta love these paper games of today. Please keep in mind that at the moment both are F1s.

The reserve asset is in accounting under code F1. I could be wrong of course Yes volume does not need to increase anymore but violent short term fluctuations on local-global level could bring dislocations.

Sorry hard to put this into words. I would be very interested into how You see it. Lets be please factual as each time you are :o. The 'Markets' are fun to watch. It's like a "nice boat ride. I'll leave the analogy of 'deep water' for someone else:. Not to exchange euros for gold, but to use the gold to manage the euro, manipulate it if you will.

But the big difference is that it will not start doing this until it is competing in a physical-only marketplace for gold. So in a way, even though it will be manipulation from TPTB, it will be fair manipulation! It will be "hard trading" with "hard opinions" available to everyone. Such contractual obligations do not represent a stable and credible quantity like the physical gold itself does, and therefore they make a poor and distorted pricing benchmark.

Gold is the reserve, and there will be national fiats too. Maybe even a sdr. It would be primarily an international unit of account and national fiats would be transactional. Gold would still be the monetary reserve asset.

Currency is no big deal. Currency is not the issue that matters here. What matters is what we, as a planet, choose to save. Their avoidance of any meaningful discussion of the most obvious remedy is almost pathological in the extreme. What IS desperately needed, however, is a universally respected reserve asset capable of filling our current void with a reliable presence that serves as a store of value. From amid the ruins of a chaotic financial crisis that was brought about by its own complexity, a degree of sanity will prevail, and gold as a freely floating asset will arise in stature as THE important element of global monetary reserves.

The floating aspect is the vital evolutionary improvement over all previous structural monetary failures which tried to use a gold standard at a fixed price i. Victor, Regarding severing the Euro's link to the nation-state, consider a distinction between the past and the present. As I like to think, the euro was in a sense built to print. Past euro debt will be dealt with with an eye to protecting the banking system writedowns, ZIRP, swaps, repos, emergency lending, assets purchases, restructuring.

This very long term transition is playing on a move away from dollar domination with Europe preparing to suffer less than us by pulling in as many other political trading blocks as they can.

But future obligations are different than past obligations. The euro members cannot force the printing of their future obligations the way the US Congress can.

I always considered it good fuel for campfires, when it is cold outside on the trail, but from up here, there shines a whole different light upon it. FOFOA says, from Dilemma : "As the global reserve currency, the dollar finds itself in the position of being a global "network good. Anyway, "Everyone knows where we have been. I am with you loathing the idea of super-sovereign currencies.

But they are much less creepy once they sever the link to gold and the state like the euro did. And the euro is here now. I certainly don't support any One World Currency or Amero.

But I don't think that is even an issue. International trust and confidence is too damaged at this point to ever make it work even if it is tried. You can force a currency on a nation through legal tender laws, but a super-sovereign currency must be joined voluntarily. I have said many times on this blog that I believe we will evolve into many national and a few regional currencies all competing for strength, not weakness.

JR, nice, look I know the drill, I remember tose sentences as well as you do, but let me ask you once again, what is SDR now and what role it will play in future? Discl: I am not actively supporting it, by no means. So the issue is I suppose how do we get "there" Mortymer, Go play your silly goal post shifting games elsewhere, I'm not game to play your rube mark.

You keep pretending to claim to understand freegold and dismiss others because you have been posting here so long just like lots of other folks who don't know what they are talking about but you keep saying lots of stuff that undermines your credibility.

Maybe next you can defend Eastern European Communism and wanker on about the wonders of the September Group's analytical marxism ;. Let your life proceed by its own design. Nothing to tell now. Let the words be yours, I'm done with mine. Where is the "to exercise a thought without accepting it" I ask? I beg you a pardon?

From one sentence you derived that next time I will: "Maybe next you can defend Eastern European Communism and wanker on about the wonders of the September Group's analytical marxism". What is Your problem? That was from your head, finally not a re-post!

Thank you no thank you. Paul, Mortymer I don't like JR's tone and defensiveness any more that the 2 of you but let me come to his defense a bit. And if the US loses this control then who will take up the baton?

Even if it is not a nation state it will most certainly be a cabal of individuals who will try to control the currency for their own purposes. As DP alluded to above, elemental gold is controlled by nature not man. For your information I posted the link to "September Group" for Ash as he was so interested in this subject and I wanted to hear his opinion about it andf explain to US.

That day I read about that for a first time and it sounded interesting so I wanted to hear more from somebody who knew perhaps? Does That in Your view undermine my credibility? Next time please if you do not understand someones view or if you disagree post it politely, I may be wrong, I do not claim to be right all the time, I never did. It will be great if we could return to normal appropriate style now and not bother others with this nonsense. Thank you. I know I do. When we arrive on the spot, we will agree on more climbing to do from there, we can see even where we want to go, but we have to find a way to get there.

It's possible, that once we left the reserve system, the return to an increasing momentum of world trade flows would not have been seen again for several generations. I would say that there is a little bit of prejudice about East Europe here perhaps? Why not a Chinese or whichever one? I asked you specifically to be factual. I come here to learn and discuss not to listen some personal issues you may have. Mortymer, Calling oneself a proponent of "non bullshit Marxism" may be the biggest steaming pile of arrogant, self promoting, bullshit of all.

So, yes, from that standpoint, and perhaps several others, I think a certain resident troll sounds like a perfect fit.

Edwardo: I found some parts interesting, e. Roemer was led to the conclusion that exploitation and class were thus generated not in the sphere of production but of market exchange Hi Mortymer, " However, as western economies evolved, - and I use the term evolved advisedly - of late into primarily financial service operations, plundering hoi polloi was best done via market exchange.

One has to fit the crime to the time don't you know. The Bank also decided to take steps towards modernising its financial accounting and reporting practices. Used by a number of international organisations, the SDR is an international unit of account defined by the IMF and based on a basket of major currencies. The gold franc has served as the unit of account for the BIS since its establishment in Along with a strengthened accounting framework, it will assist in managing the Bank's operations and economic capital more efficiently and enhance the transparency of its accounts.

Essentially you are saying that nations will continue to use their own as well as other nations debt for reserve purposes in addition to gold. Fiat currencies will be used for trade purposes.

Individuals will also seek to store their wealth in both gold and fiat currencies. But if too much debt is created then gold becomes the ultimate fallback as real returns fall.

Is this where you are going or am I reading too much into your comments? I know I am not at the top of the mountain yet, but am sure Armstrong is. Paul Debt will be hated Interest rates will have to rise prices of bonds fall to high levels in order to intice people back into the pool. However, as my previous exchanges with M will attest, I believe that bond prices still have to climb before they start their massive fall.

I don't believe that TPTB are finished with their prestidigitation. Paul writes, "Trade needs a nationfreeworlcurrency for that. The problems we are suffering from at present aren't the result of the absence of a nation free world currency. We don't NEED a Bancor an SDR or any of these other as yet to be realized one world currency instruments, what we require is that the co-mingling of the medium of exchange and store of value function be terminated.

Hopefully Bron won't mind a repost from his blog which he published on August 9, Consider it a non-sequitur. Interest rates are low, and frankly precious metals are a hell of a good way to go. I can't see anything around to stop it. Bit [But] it won't go northwards in a straight line because people will always be taking profits. I did, and allow me to commit heresy by suggesting again that the word NEED needs to be removed from that sentence.

That world trade would operate more smoothly with a one wiorld currency is a matter of theoretical conjecture, but it is not necessary, and that is not a matter of speculation. World trade has functioned, can function, and does function without a single world currency. Now, as to Jazz singers and who is the best, here are a few thoughts A there is no "best" and, B in any case I believe the Armstrong you have in mind is the late trumpeter named Louis Arnstrong who was, undoubtedly,magnificent and one of the greatest the world of Jazz has ever known.

They say his contemporary Bix Beiderbeck sp? Paul: You said, "you just don't want local currencies competing to be priced best in gold. Everyone is bringing a different currency chickens, blankets, etc. FWIW I am deeply impressed with his work on cycle theory and his track record in predicting economic turning points.

However some of his writing about the Euro, gold and related topics have not been as clear headed and insightful as I hoped they would be. I suspect that one of the reasons for this is that he melds into his essays some very big themes each of which would merit an essay of their own.

This recent essay is no exception. It could easily have been three separate essays and in some ways it is precisely that. I look forward to the publication of his book for a more comprehensive, orderly presentation of his ideas and theories. It provides fodder for our sometime trolls to sow their disinformation and air their personal animosity to the currency union. Hopefully this will clear up some of the confusion. His styling of the EMU members debt as a kind of currency derivative, a virtual currency, that can be used to punish the individual countries obscures what would otherwise be some fairly straight forward issues.

I think it would have been much better if he had discussed the issue of risk differentiation among the EMU member states debts without conflating it with a discussion of currency per se. Differentiating the risk of the EMU member states debt is not a threat to the Euro itself. Under the present structure of the single currency the risk is confined to default on debt not a political decision by an individual nation-state to debase the currency in order to engineer a de facto default on its debts.

This differentiation is a threat to some of the governments of these countries, the debt holders and the citizens of the EMU countries. His claim that a debt consolidation should have been done at the time that the Euro was launched is also open to debate though it is not entirely without merit in my opinion. However it would have been politically impossible then, resulted in a debt restructuring anyway and is today ultimately unnecessary for the Euro to endure if you understand what is written in the archives here.

This has been presented by him as a weakness of the Euro in several essays. This begs a question: Why is the ability of the currency issuer to devalue a currency a benefit of being able to issue a currency? A devaluation imposed by a market in which all currencies float freely is an entirely different matter. This would be a positive function of the FX market provided there is a reference point for currency value that cannot be manipulated - unlike the US dollar.

There are many perspectives you can consider this question from. We also need to consider the flipside of this as well. In that context, what price do you see gold going to? Instead, it will be a reset of sorts, kind of like an overnight revaluation of a currency. This will be similar. I have to add that purchasing power part because it will likely be concurrent with currency devaluation. The price of gold has been rather flat lately.

What are the reasons for the same? Where do you see the price of gold going over the next couple of years? These include forward sales, futures contracts, swaps, options and unallocated accounts.

That survey revealed a trading flow of such magnitude that it compares to every ounce of gold that has ever been mined in all of history changing hands in just three months, or about times faster than gold miners are actually pulling metal out of the ground.

Equally stunning were the net sales during the survey period. What is the point you are trying to make? The point is that gold is being used by the global money market as a hard currency.

But it is being treated by the marketplace as both a commodity that gets consumed and also as a fiat currency that can be credited at will. So, what are you predicting? It is not a short squeeze that I am predicting. In a short squeeze, the paper price runs up until it draws out enough real supply to cover all of the paper.

But this paper will not be covered by physical gold in the end. It will be cash settled, and it will be cash settled at a price much lower than the price of a real ounce of gold, like a check written by an overstretched counterparty.

If you were holding paper you will be sad. Why is the gold price so flat these days? Franklin Roosevelt had confiscated all the gold that Americans had in Do you see something similar happening in days to come? Not at all! The purpose of the confiscation was to stop the bank run epidemic at that time. The dollar is no longer defined as a fixed weight of gold, so the reason for the last confiscation—and subsequent devaluation—no longer exists.

Gold mines will likely be considered strategically important national assets after the revaluation, and will therefore fall under tight government control.

How safe do you think is the safe haven? Indeed, everyone seems to be piling into the dollar. Especially on the short end of the curve, helping drive interest rates ridiculously low. Remember the Swiss franc? As soon as it started rising due to safe haven use, they started printing it back down. So when it blows, the fireworks will be something to behold. What will change the confidence that people have in the dollar? Will there be some catastrophic event?